地方财政能够承受起PPP项目财政支出责任吗？——基于2010-2018年PPP项目的分析

Can Local Government Finance Bear PPP Expenditure Responsibilities?——Analysis Based on PPP Projects During 2010-2018

本文使用了2010-2018年财政部PPP项目库中所有已发起PPP项目的数据,计算了2019-2033年每一年各地级市全市财政所需承担的PPP财政支出责任,并分别以4%、6%和8%的增长率来估算地级市全市一般公共预算支出规模,从而对PPP项目财政支出责任带来的地方政府财政支出压力进行测算。在对测算结果进行分析后发现,由PPP项目财政支出责任带来的地方政府财政支出压力总体可控。在以4%、6%和8%的增长率来估算一般公共预算支出规模时,超10%'红线'的地级市分别为20、13和11个,西部地区超10%'红线'的城市数量明显高于东、中部地区。因此,在管理得当的前提下,大多数城市仍然有较充足的PPP项目的财政承受能力空间。

In this paper,we use data from all the PPP projects in China Public Private Partnerships Center Management Database of the Ministry of Finance during 2010-2018 to calculate the fiscal expenditure responsibility for prefectures in China during 2019-2033.We then estimate general public budget expenditure during 2019-2033 with annual growth rate of 4%,6%,and 8%,respectively and the pressure of local governments’fiscal expenditure brought about by PPP’s fiscal responsibility.We find that the number of cities with PPP’s fiscal responsibility over the 10%'red line'is 20,13 and 11 respectively,when we estimate general public budget expenditure with growth rate of 4%,6%,and 8%.These cities are mainly located in the western region.As a result,most cities still have adequate fiscal affordability for PPP projects if projects are properly managed.