对中国产业内贸易决定因素的经验研究

An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of China's Intra-industry Trade

随着中国加入 WTO,中国的产业内贸易将受到更大关注。本文受 Greenaway对英国产业内贸易问题经验研究的启发 ,运用跨部门的截面分析对中国 1 999和 2 0 0 0年的相关数据进行了处理和加权回归 ,并加以模型稳定性检验 ,以检验国际产业内贸易理论在中国的适用情况。结果显示 ,产品的多样化与产业内贸易正相关 ,规模经济因素对中国产业内贸易没有显著影响 ,而外国直接投资对于产业内贸易的发展具有一定的负效应。

With China's entering into the WTO, the intra-industry trade in China will attract more attention. Enlightened by Greenaway's empirical study on the intra-industry trade of England, we did the weighted regression analysis using the cross section data of China. After the model stability test(Zou test), we examined the applicability of intra-industry trade theories for Chinese case. The conclusion shows that the product diversification is positively related with intra-industry trade index, the scale economy factor has no obvious contribution to that index, and the factor of FDI has negative effect to the development of intra-industry trade.