北京丰台区农村居住用地变化及与人口相关模型

Rural Residential Land Use Change and Its Correlative Model with Population in Fengtai District of Beijing

采用GIS技术和统计分析技术,基于1984年、1992年、1996年和1999年4期土地利用图件和数据,分析了1984～1999年期间北京丰台区农村居住用地变化过程及地域分异特征;提出并应用特征均值探讨了农村人均居住用地和人居密度变化的过程和趋势;以行政村为基本单元,利用1999年农村居住用地数据与对应的农村人口数据建立了表达式为Sv=11.324e0。0006Pv的农村居住用地与人口相关模型;用1992年数据对模型进行检验和误差分析的结果表明,模型适用地域为北京近郊且不邻近卫星城镇的农村区。

Based on the land use survey map and data in 1984, 1992, 1996 and 1999, and assisted by spatial analysis techniques of GIS and statistical analysis methods, the spatial-temporal process and differentiation of rural residential land use change were analyzed in Fengtai district, Beijing city. Using the data of rural residential land use and population by village in 1999, a correlative model between rural residential land use and population was set up, and the usefulness and errors of the model were analyzed in 1992. Some results are obtained.(1) The total area of rural residential land-use increased with the elapse of time, but its speed was slower and slower. The increased area was 949.8 hm2, with 63.32 hm2 of annual average and 2.56% of annual average increased rate from 1984 to 1999. The annual increased area and rate were respectively 103.39 hm2 and 4.31% from 1984 to 1992. Those were 20.2 hm2 and 0.69% from 1992 to 1996, and 13.94 hm2 and 0.47% from 1996 to 1999.(2) During 1984 to 1999, the spatial-temporal feature of rural residential land-use change in the district was very remarkable. According to the increased proportions of rural residential land-use in total land area of different townships, the difference between the highest and the lowest was 9% . By the annual average increased rate of rural residential land-use in 1984-1992, 1992-1996 and 1996-1999, there were different increased courses in various subareas away from center city, with 'mid-high-mid' in the inner areas of the Third Ring Road, 'high-low-mid' in the areas between the Third and Fourth Ring Roads, 'high-low -minus' in the subarea outside the Fourth Ring Road and 'high-low-low' in the western areas of the Yongding river.(3) Due to the influence of population and policy, per capita living space was close to 203 m2 and population density was adjacent to 50 persons a hectare from 1984 to 1999. And in the coming 5-10 years, 120 m2 will be regarded as the target to regulate the former and 83 persons a hectare will be the one to the latter.(4) The formula of the simulated correlative model between the rural residential land use and population is Sv = 11.324e0.0006pv. The result of its test and error analysis shows that the model could be applied to predicting rural residential land use change of suburban villages in Beijing city.