摘要
以IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)方法为基础,用IAP-N—1.0氮循环模型分析1961～2030年时间序列、亚洲各国家和地区的氮收支情况。农作物数据来源于联合国粮农组织(FAO)数据库。各参数及排放因子以亚洲国家检测出的数据为主,缺省值采用IPCC的默认值。本文主要讨论了活性氮产生及其不同的迁移和转化途径,以及环境对氮的富集作用和主要驱动因子。亚洲地区活性氮含量从1961年约14.4TgN/a迅速地增加到2000年约67.7TgN/a,预计到2030年可能达105.3TgN/a。人类对食物和能源需求的增长,以及缺乏提高氮肥利用率、降低矿物燃料燃烧释放NO_x的有效措施,使得由人类活动产生的大部分活性氮在环境中累积。解决这一问题还有待于用先进的生物技术,研制出新型高效氮源来代替目前的合成氮。
We analyzed nitrogen budgets at national and regional levels on a timeline from 1961-2030 using a model, IAP-N 1.0. The model was designed based upon the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methods using Asia-specific parameters and a Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) database. In this paper we discuss new reactive-nitrogen and its various fates, and environmental nitrogen enrichment and its driving forces. The anthropogenic reactive nitrogen of Asia dramatically increased from ~ 14.4 Tg N yr^-1 in 1961 to ~ 67.7 Tg N yr^-1 in 2000 and is likely to be 105.3 Tg N yr^-1 by 2030. Most of the anthropogenic reactive-nitrogen has accumulated in the environment. We found that an increasing demand for food and energy supplies and the lack of effective measures to improve the efficiency of fertilizer nitrogen use, as well as effective measures for the prevention of NO_x emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, are the principal drivers behind the environmental nitrogen-enrichment problem. This problem may be finally solved by substituting synthetic nitrogen fertilizers with new high-efficiency nitrogen sources, but solutions are dependent on advances in biological technology.
