摘要
利用计算机模拟的方法,我们为第二届国际氮会议研制开发了一个游戏形式的氮决策支持系统。研制这一系统的目的是:①使科学工作者和决策者们都能认识到荷兰氮污染问题的复杂性,因为荷兰是一个农业、工业和运输业活动密集的区域;②探索以最低的社会经济代价解决氮污染的最佳方案。NitroGenius由有关时空范围内的氮流动模型组成,其中包括氨和氮氧化合物的释放及其对地表水和地下水的污染。NitroGenius中还包括了一个经济模型,它描述了各个重要经济部门之间的关系,以及不同氮排放控制措施对国民生产总值(GDP)、失业率、能源消耗和环境的影响。在第二次国际氮会议期间,大约有50个研究组对NitroGenius进行了测试,结果表明,如果认真进行计划并选择适当的治理措施,就能够以适当的代价解决荷兰的氮污染问题。
A nitrogen decision support system in the form of a game (NitroGenius) was developed for the Second International Nitrogen Conference. The aims were to: /) improve understanding among scientists and policy makers about the complexity of nitrogen pollution problems in an area of intensive agricultural, industrial, and transportation activity (The Netherlands); and ii) search for optimal policy solutions to prevent pollution effects at lowest economic and social costs. NitroGenius includes a model of nitrogen flows at relevant spatial and temporal scales including emissions of ammonia and nitrogen oxides and contamination of surface- and groundwaters. NitroGenius also includes an economic model describing relationships for important sectors and impacts of different nitrogen control measures on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment, energy use, and environmental costs. About 50 teams played NitroGenius during the Second International Nitrogen Conference. The results show that careful planning and selection of abatement options can solve Dutch nitrogen problems at reasonable cost.
