汛期长江中下游降雨量与下游水位增幅的预测

THE PRECIPITATION DURING FLOOD SEASON IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF THE CHANGJIANG RIVER AND THE PREDICTION FOR THE WATER LEVEL RISING VARIETY IN THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CHANGJIANG RIVER

江苏沿江城市防汛关键是长江的持续高水位。本文经统计分析 ,南京下关水位的大幅上涨 ,主要决定于长江中游两岸的大范围强降水过程。经二年的水文、气象资料统计分析 ,引发下关水位升幅达 0 .5 m左右 ,与长江中游出现大范围的强降水过程密切相关 ,且滞后约 2— 3d。在此基础上 ,设计、试验了长江下关高潮水位变化值的模拟预测式 ,经历史样本检验效果理想。

The key for flood prevention in the cities along the Changjiang River in Jiangsu was that the water level on the Changjiang River was continuously high.The wide area heavy rain procession along both banks in the middle reaches of the Changjiang River was in charge of that the water level rose high in Xiaguan in Nanjing.The analysis of two year data of Meteorology and Hydrology indicated there were a close relationship between the wide area heavy rain procession in the middle reaches of the Changjiang River and the responsibility to 0.5m of water level rising in Xiaguan,and ,with two days lagged.Based on the above conclusion,the simulation prediction model about the water level variety in high tide in Xiaguan on the Changjiang River was designed,historical samples proved the effect was fine.