油田开发时变结构预测模型的建立及应用

Establishment and Application of Time Variant Structural Forecast Model in the Oilfield Development

在油田开发规律研究的基础上,将预测模型中的待定系数确立为时变参数,建立了油田广义产量和两类常用水驱特征曲线的时变结构预测模型,并利用系统辨识理论中多层递阶预报方法进行参数估计,可大大提高模型的拟合精度和预报精度。经实际资料的应用,效果较好。

Based on the oilfield development law study,the undetermined coefficient of forecast mode is regarded as time variant parameter.The time variant structural forecast model of oilfield generalized production and two common water drive characteristic curves are developed.And multi-layer recursive forecast method of systematic recognition the-ory is used to estimate parameter,which can greatly improve the model match accuracy and forecast accuracy.The ap-plication shows that it has good effectiveness.