基于边际效益的水资源空间动态优化配置研究——以黑河流域张掖地区为例

Analysis on Marginal Revenues Model of Water Resource Spacial Balanced Allocation ——Take Zhangye Prefecture as a Case

基于边际效益递减和边际成本递增原理 ,运用水资源利用的边际效益空间动态优化方法 ,研究了黑河中游张掖地区调水后启动分水的时序和数量 ,阐述了净边际效益的求解过程和处理方法 ,结果表明 ,当调入水量W≥ 1.190 5× 10 8t,高台县、临泽县、山丹县都应依次得到分水 .最后分析了优化结果和问题处理 。

The optimal spatial allocation and rational using of water resources has been a hotspot all over the world. Water resources allocation among districts or regions always tends to adopt administrative quotas in China, which has brought many conflicts between districts or regions. The paper proposes a spatial balanced allocation model based on marginal revenue degression and marginal cost increasing by degrees theories. To make the maximal revenue for water resources, it is pointed out that the water (except the essential water resources for living and ecology demands) must be allocated to the optimal district, where water resource turns out the maximal marginal revenue. Then the water is allocated to the second optimal district and so on. If there are enough water resources, every district will have their water early or late, otherwise only the districts where the better marginal revenues can be seen have the chance to get their water. \ \ In this paper, Zhangye Prefecture is taken as a case to expatiate how to compute the marginal revenue. The Cobb-Dauglas function is adopted to get the industrial and agricultural marginal revenues. As a result, it is considered that when the amount of water input (\%W\%) ranges from 0 to 0.4248×10\+8m\+3, Gaotai County should be given water first, and when \%W\%≥1.1905×10\+8 t, both Linze and Shandan Counties may have water. At last, the estimation of calculation parameters and the application perspectives of the model are discussed.