摘要
通过对甘肃省夏秋粮产量变化趋势的特征分析 ,提出了产量波动区间的概念。最高与最低产量两个序列分别构成了波动区间的上限和下限 ,实际产量将在其波动区间中围绕趋势产量运行。并通过实例 ,给出了预报的具体方法。此方法不但缩小了预报的范围 。
The meaning of the tendency yield was defined by analysing the characteristics of tendency of summer and autumn grain crops in Gansu Province. Base on this a concept of the fluctuant rang of yield was given. The fluctuant rang is made by the lines of the highest yield and lowest yield. Reality yield moves surrounding the tendency yield in the fluctuant rang of yield. Concrete methods for forecast has been given, which not only decreases the extent of result of yield forecast but also improves the accuracy of yield forecast by confining yield change in this narrow rang.
出处
《干旱地区农业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第3期124-127,共4页
Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
基金
甘肃省气象局"甘肃省作物生态气候适生种植区划服务系统研究"
