变更与稳定——论21世纪前期世界政治基本性质的矛盾和过渡特征

Alteration and Stability——The Contradictory Natures and Transition of World Politics in the Early 21st Century

在全球国际体系的全球化基本环境中 ,变更而非稳定仍将是新世纪世界政治的本质内涵 ;与此同时 ,在可以预见的未来 ,变更趋势还远未发展到能够更改世界基本性质的地步 ,因而稳定也将构成世界本质性的一大方面。这就是说 ,促使世界政治传统的基本性质延续下去的因素 ,仍将在长时期里有力地阻滞、限制那些使之趋于根本变换的因素。变动与稳定、更改与延续结合在一起 ,将使 2 1世纪、至少是其前期成为世界政治的一个大过渡时代 ,而对于过渡到哪里去的问题 。

This paper argues that, the global international system at present is altering rather than stabilizing in the environment of globalization, and this situation will remain to be the most essential connotation of world politics in the 21st century. But at the same time, the tendency of altering is far from reaching the stage on which the basic nature of world politics could be changed in the predictable future, therefore creating stability is another essential aspect or content of world politics. In other words, within quite a long period, factors that help to maintain the traditional characteristics of world politics will continue to hinder and limit the factors that working in the opposite direction. Alternation and stability or change and continuation will combine with each other, and make the 21st century or at least in its early decades a major transitional era of world politics.