银行大型水利水电项目贷款风险评估体系的建构

Risk-rating System on Bank's loan to Large Water Conservancy & Hydroelectric Projects

银行贷款项目评估应注重项目的可融资性 ,即清偿能力和抗风险能力 .但我国银行实际应用的风险等级评定法存在交叉重复评价 ,权重不当等问题 ,从而难以科学地评估贷款项目的可融资性 .本文针对大型水利水电工程项目建构银行评估贷款项目风险的指标体系 .在分析了实际应用的项目风险等级评定法存在的问题之后 ,建构了一个用 3个 0 -1变量 (贷款偿还期、经济内部收益率和环境影响效果 )相乘再乘其他 6类指标加权和 (权重用 AHP给出 )评估项目风险等级的新体系、新方法 .该方法既关注风险性 ,又关注可行性 .实证分析显示这一方法是创新的、科学的。

When a bank loan project is evaluated, its ability to circulate that is its sbility to pay off and resist risk should be paid attention to. But the method rating project's used now has some problems. Some indexes are overlapping, and some weights are not exact. So the ability to circulate can't be evaluated correctly. In the paper, a new target system to rate water conservancy & hydroelectric projects' risk is construted. In this system, we multiply three 0\|1 variables (\$P\-d\$, EIRR and environmental influence effect), then add six category weighted indexes, at last we multiply the two results. The new method is creative and scientific. The positive analysis has proven its feasibility.