蒙特卡罗模拟在配电系统可靠性研究中的应用

Applications of Monte Carlo Simulation in Reliability Studies of Distribution Systems

介绍“Monte Carlo simulation-based reliability studies of a distribution test system”(《Electric Power Systems Research》,2000,54 (1))一文的研究方法,即以IEEE配电试验系统为例,应用蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS)法研究配电系统负荷点的可靠性和系统运行特性指标。对配电系统的限时检修(TTR)和限时操作(TTS)等4种状态组合时系统平均停电频率指数及其停电持续时间指数的累积概率分布情况进行了分析。同时把模拟方法与传统解析方法进行了比较,结果证明,模拟方法更能精确地预测可靠性的概率分布。

This paper instroduces the results of a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approach to distribution system reliabilitystudies, presented in the paper of Mote carlo simulation-based reliability studies of a distribution test system published inElectric Power Systems Resenrch 2000, 54(1). The load point reliability indices and system performance indices using theMCS method for distribution systems are calculated. Four possible probability distributions of times to repair (TTR) andtimes to switch (TTS) of components are incorporated in the simulation studies. The cumulative probability distributions ofsystem performance indices such as SAIFI and SAIDI for the four different distributions of TTR and TTS are also presented.The study results show that the simulation method gives acceptable reliability indices and can also be used to provideinformation on the probability distributions associated with the predicted indices for different distributions of TTR andTTS.