预期增广的菲利普斯曲线及其对中国适用性检验

The Expectations-augmented Phillips Curve Model and a Test on Its Application in China

本文运用多元协整理论以及我国的相关数据 ,对宏观经济研究的前沿之一即预期增广的菲利普斯曲线 (EAPM)进行协整分析和检验。其主要结论为 :(1 )我国的通胀、劳动生产率成本 (工资 )、需求和进口等 4个变量 (构成EAPM的变量 )之间存在一个长期稳定关系 (协整 ) ,因此 ,由EAPM所揭示的通胀 (紧缩 )的生成过程不宜用于解释我国的通胀 (紧缩 ) ,即价格标高论在我国不成立 ;(2 )我国的通胀 (紧缩 )和劳动生产率成本之间不存在协整即长期均衡 ,而通胀、劳动生产率成本和需求之间也不存在长期稳定关系。这一结论意味着用通胀刺激需求的政策主张没有科学根据 。

This article makes a co-integrative analysis and test of the Expectations-augmented Phillips Curve Model (EAPM), one of the leading-edge indexes of macro-economics, by means of the theory of multivariate co-integration and relevant data about China. The conclusions are as follows: (1). There exists a long stable relationship (co-integration) among the four variable of the EAPM, that is, inflation, labor productivity cost (wages), demand and imports in China, the generating process of inflation (and deflation) revealed by the EAPM cannot explain inflation and deflation in China, i.e., the theory of markup is not applicable to China; (2) There does not exist a co-integrative or long balanced relationship between inflation (or deflation) and labor productivity cost, nor is there a long stable relationship between inflation, labor productivity cost and demand. This conclusion implies that there is no scientific basis for the proposition to stimulate demand with inflation and that we should not pin our hopes of a balanced demand on the adjustment of price and labor productivity cost alone.