基于复杂系统理论的技术系统演化分析

Analysis of the Evolution Process of Technology System-Based on the Complex System Theory

在完善逻辑斯氵帝克 (L ogistic)模型的基础上 ,结合自组织理论和协同学原理分析了技术系统进步和替代的演化过程 ,指出在技术进步的不同阶段内因和外因的作用不同 ,解释了技术替代过程中的振荡现象。提出技术是人类—环境系统协同发展中介的思想和有效调控技术进步的政策建议。

Based on the extended Logistic model and combined with self organization and synergetic theory, the paper explains the evolution process of technology system. It is pointed out that the effect of intrinsic factor and extrinsic factor is different in different phrases of technology process. The fluctuations associated with technology substitution are interpreted .An idea that technology is the agency of synergetic developing human environment system is proposed and some pieces of policy advice are given.