苏联入侵捷克斯洛伐克决策过程新论

A New Theory of the Decision-making Process in Soviet Union's Invading Czechoslovak

苏联领导人原本准备在 7月底对捷克斯洛伐克进行武装干涉 ,但由于在切尔纳会议上 ,杜布切克向苏联领导人达成了口头妥协 ,苏联不得不推迟干涉。捷克斯洛伐克领导人不愿与苏联领导人会见 ,引起苏联对捷克斯洛伐克领导人忠诚的怀疑 ;苏联对杜布切克选择中央领导人的模糊态度表示不满 ,这增加了苏联对捷克斯洛伐克改革动机的怀疑 ;捷克斯洛伐克领导人许诺恢复对改革进程的控制 ,但却没有采取任何有效措施。以上三点原因成为引发 8月 2 0日苏联武装干涉的直接原因。

The Soviet Union Leaders had planned to intervene Czechoslovak by force by the end of July.However,this plan was delayed by the oral compromise reached between Dubeck and the Soviet leaders at the Cierna Meeting.There are three reasons that stimulated the Soviet Union to invade Czech on August 20,1968:the tendency of Czech leaders to avoid meeting the Soviet counterparts;the ambiguity over the choice of leaders within the Czech leadership; Czech leaders promised to control the reform process but did nothing to that effect.