基于多正态分布的随机生产模拟直接算法

DIRECT METHOD OF PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION SIMULATION BASED ON MIXTURES OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS

本文提出了一种基于多正态分布的随机生产模拟新算法。该算法不需要修正原始负荷,而直接从负荷的多正态分布与系统出力的多正态分布导出有关的解析计算公式。数学算例表明该方法是一种准确、快速的算法。

This paper describes a new probabilistic production simulation method based on mixtures of normal distributions. This method does not require to modify the original load,and the relevant formulae are derived directly from the mixture of normal distributions of load and the mixture of normal distributions of system power. Numerical results indicate that this method is accurate and rapid in comparison with the conventional and the cumulant methods.