货币政策工具运用对中介目标影响的实证分析

Positive Analysis of the Effect of Currency Policy on Medium Target

随着市场化程度的提高 ,货币的内生性程度增强 ,从而使以货币供应量作为中介目标的货币政策效应趋于弱化。此外 ,国有企业、国有商业银行的体制和制度弊端 ,金融市场不发达 ,社会保障体制不健全和我国居民的传统消费伦理观也是制约货币政策效应的重要因素。因此 ,对货币政策效应的约束条件 ,不仅来源于货币领域 ,而且来源于实体经济的各相关环节。通货紧缩时期 ,不是资本不足 ,而且滞留在为生产过程和银行领域的资本数量太大 ,货币政策显然不能完全有效地解决这些问题。在这种条件下 ,直接有效的投资扩张只能来自于财政政策 。

As the market goes maturing gradually and the internal productive capacity of currency is strengthening, the currency policy, which takes the supplying amounts of currency as its medium target, tends to be weakened. In addition, the factors as the disadvantages of the running system and operating rules in the state owned enterprises and state owned banks, the underdevelopment of the financial market, the imperfect social security system and people's consuming ethic concepts in China, are conditioning the role played by the currency policy. Therefore, the limitation to the currency policy comes from not only the field of currency, but also the corresponding steps in substantive economy. In the period of currency shortening, as a matter of fact, the capital was not insufficient, but mainly stayed in the course of production and banks. Under this circumstance, the directive and effective way can only come from financial policy, while the currency policy can solve the problem of circulation means which economy needs.