中国水安全系统模拟及对策比较研究

Modeling water security in China and comparison of the strategies

运用系统分析的理论与方法 ,分析了中国水生态系统的特征及各组分间的相互作用 ,建立了中国水安全动态模型。模型从生命安全、经济安全、粮食安全、生态系统安全、环境安全和社会安全等六个子安全出发 ,在按常规发展的模拟 ,技术革新模拟 ,体制改革和引为诱导模拟以及水资源可持续利用模拟四种不同情景下进行系统模拟。结果表明 :只有加速技术创新 ,增强水生态和节水意识 ,加强水管理 ,中国水安全才能得以保证。

A China water security dynamic model were built up based on the systematical analyses of characteristics and their inter-relationship of sub-systems of water resource system in China. In modeling, four scenarios, as the business as usual, the technology and economic scenario, the institutional, value, and life style changes scenario and the towards sustainable development scenario, were simulated in terms of life security, economical security, food security, ecosystem security, environmental security and social security. The simulation suggested that the water security in China can be guaranteed by combined with accelerated water use technology innovation, new water management policy and management system reform, and ecological and economical awareness on water resource improvement.