基于Monte-Carlo方法的土石围堰挡水导流风险分析

Risk analysis of retaining rockfill cofferdam for diversion based on the Monte-Carlo method

运用Monte -Carlo方法模拟施工洪水入库过程和导流建筑物泄流的随机性 ,通过仿真分析确定上游围堰堰前水位变化过程及其分布函数。在此基础上 ,根据导流建筑物的设计规模确定导流系统的风险。通过实例验证分析说明 ,研究方法和计算模型是可靠的、适用的。

Risk of the construction diversion system is controlled by the real capacity of flood discharge and flood inflow, which has uncertain and dynamic properties The paper uses the Monte Carlo method to simulate the flood during construction and discharge process of diversion structure, analyzes statistically water level change of cofferdam in upper stream, and obtains a distribution function of the water level change Based on the computational results, the risk of the diversion system are determined The case study shows that the simulation model and analytical method are reliable and reasonable