矿山地震能量极值分布的研究及其应用

Application of Energy Extreme Distribution in Prediction of Strong Mining Tremor

将冈贝尔Ⅰ型极值分布应用于矿山地震能量分布规律的研究 ,结合前人的研究成果 ,推导了能量极值分布函数的表达式 ,给出了其参数确定方法。针对老虎台矿矿震实际 ,将能量极值分布用于强矿山地震事件的预测。结果表明 ,预测的月最大矿震能量的概率分布与实际记录的矿震月最大能量分布一致。同时预测了老虎台矿未来强矿震事件发生的概率。

Gumbel Ⅰ extreme distribution is applied to the study of energy distribution of mining tremor. With reference to the other researcher's work, the authors have derivated the expression for energy extreme distribution functions and given the determination methods for their parameters. In light of the actual conditions of Laohutai coal mine's mining tremor, the energy extreme distribution is applied to prediction of strong mining tremor in the coal mine. The results show that the predicted probability distribution of monthly largest energy consists well with the actually recorded distribution of monthly largest energy. Also, the authors predict the probability of strong mining tremor in Laohutai coal mine in the future years.