货币渠道、信用渠道与货币政策有效性——中国1993-2001年的实证分析和政策含义

Monetary Channel,Credit Channel and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

从金融机构的资产负债角度看 ,货币政策传导一般有货币渠道和信用渠道两个主要途径 ,但学者对不同渠道的货币政策传导效果无论是理论研究还是实证分析都还存在较大分歧。本文运用协整与基于向量自回归模型的格兰杰因果检验和预测方差分解等时间序列分析方法 ,对中国 1 993 - 2 0 0 1年间的货币政策传导机制进行实证分析 ,结果表明中国的货币政策是通过信用渠道和货币渠道的共同传导发挥作用的 ,相比之下信用渠道占主导地位。但在我国经济转轨时期 ,信用渠道的传导障碍在很大程度上限制了以其为主要传导途径的货币政策有效性 ,使增加有效信用供给成为提高当前我国货币政策有效性的关键。

The smooth transmission mechanism is the base of the effectiveness of monetary policy. But there is controversy on the role of monetary channel and credit channel. This paper empirically analyzes the transmission mechanism of monetary policy during the 1993-2001 sample period in China by the latest time series approach. The results shows that the monetary policy affects the real economy through both the monetary channel and the credit channel, but the latter exerts a more important role in transmitting monetary policy, which should be given much attention in China. The low effectiveness of Chinese monetary policy was due to the obstructions of credit channel in recent years. The monetary authority should expand valid credit supply to raise the effectiveness of monetary policy.