基于系统动力学的工业机器人产业发展路径研究

A System-dynamics-based Research on the Development of Industrial Robotic Industry

在创新资源有限的情况下,如何在机器人系统集成、机器人本体、关键零部件等产业链各领域合理分配创新资源,是亟待解决的关键问题。基于系统动力学模型建立了工业机器人产业发展模型,并以实际数据对机器人产业不同领域发展进行了仿真分析。研究发现,工业机器人产业发展初期,产业政策支持重点应以系统集成为主,机器人本体和关键零部件发展为辅;在后期,机器人本体领域发展逐渐超过系统集成领域,在此阶段,应以机器人本体和关键零部件为主,系统集成为辅。

As the innovation resource is limited,how to reasonably allocate innovation resources in the fields of system integration,robot main body,and key components is a key issue to be solved urgently.Based on the system dynamics model,the industrial robotic industry development model is established,and the development of different fields of the robotic industry is simulated by real data.The research has found that in the early stage of the robotic industry,industrial policies should focus mainly on supporting the development of system integration and secondarily on the development of the robot body and the key components.In the later stage when the development of robot main body gradually exceeds that of system integration,the focus should be placed mainly on robot main body and key components and secondarily on system integration.This path has referential and practical significance for improving China’s industrial robotic industry policy.