天生桥一级水电站径流量中短期预报模型建立与应用

The Establishment and Application of Medium and Short-term Runoff Forecasting Model in Tianshengqiao First Cascade Hydropower Station

本文利用南盘江流域上的125个气象站上中旬降水量场建立了天生桥一级水电站次月径流量预报方程。预报距平准确率35年样本拟合误差小于±30%的占55.8%,小于±50%的占77.4%,从中长期的预报准确率来看,这一结果具有参考价值。1996~1997年预报误差小于±30%的占54.2%,小于±50%的占79.2%,这一结果与35年历史资料预报拟合接近,说明预方程比较稳定。

In this paper,using Mid precipitation field of 125 weather stations on Nanpanjiang Basin,the monthly runoff forecast equation of Tianshengqiao First-cascade Hydropower Station is established.For fitting errors of forcast anomaly accuracy on 35-year samples,55.8% of them are less than ±30% and 77.4% are less than±50%.From the perspective of medium and long term forecast accuracy,the results have reference value.For forecast errors of 1996 to 1997,54.2% of them are less than ±30% and 79.2% are less than ±50%.The results are fitting close to historical data forecast of 35 years,which explains a relatively stable forecast equation.