澳门博彩业收入下降风险、隐患及对策分析——基于系统动力学模型

The Risk of Decline,Hidden Danger and Countermeasure Analysis of Gambling Revenue in Macao——Based on System Dynamics Model

本文通过对澳门博彩业进行系统结构分析,构建关于澳门博彩业收入状况的系统动力学模型,通过测算分析得出,每月博彩业毛收入在210亿澳门元以上,博彩企业具盈利空间,政府可满足财政预算支出并具有足够多的资源实施扩张的财政政策,居民也能保持当前的福利水平。为保证这个数值,通过构建的系统动力学模型进行测算,建议增加开放自由行人数约200万,同时考虑到澳门社会的承载力问题,建议分两年开放,平均每年增加100万人,平均每个季度增加25万人。

In this paper, through the study of the structure of Macao’s gambling, we build a System Dynamics model of Macao’s gambling revenue. Through the calculation, only if gross income of gambling is more than 21 billion every month, then gambling enterprise can get a normal profit, and the government can meet the budget, have enough resources to implement expansionary fiscal policy, and also can maintain the current welfare level of the residents. In order to guarantee the numerical value, by building a System Dynamics model, we suggest to open the number of free line is up to about 2 million. At the same time, taking the bearing capacity of Macao society into consideration, we suggest that we should increase 1 million people every year in 2 years;that is, we should increase 250000 people quarterly.