游离之外还是融入其中?——“一带一路”背景下香港的FTA路径选择研究

Free or into it? A Study on FTA Route Selection in Hong Kong under the Background of "The Belt and Road"

'一带一路'背景下,FTA建设是香港经济建设的焦点议题。香港地区作为实体经济基础薄弱、产业结构单一的小型经济体,在全球化浪潮中并不具备反自由贸易条件,开放是其唯一出路。本研究基于GTAP9模拟分析了香港地区加入'一带一路'沿线各涉中FTA对经济的影响,结果表明:①香港加入'一带一路'沿线涉中FTA未必能带来益处,但不加入必然弊大于利;②香港单独加入'一带一路'沿线FTA缺乏足够吸引力;③香港地区所受影响与FTA合作伙伴经济规模高度相关。最终本研究提出'一带一路'背景下香港地区应划分多级梯队融入内地的FTA建设战略,'搭国家便车'推动FTA建设,重点谋求大规模的多边FTA等政策建议。

FTA construction has been the focus of Hong Kong s economic issues under the background of 'The Belt and Road'. Hong Kong, as a small economy with a weak economic foundation and a single industrial structure, does not have the ability to oppose free trade in the wave of globalization. Therefore, opening is the only outlet. Based on the GTAP9 simulation analysis of economic effects before and after Hong Kong’s joining the FTA, the results show that:(1) Hong Kong’s joining the FTA may not bring benefits, but it is bound to be harmful than good if not.(2) Hong Kong’s joining the FTA alone lacks sufficient attraction;(3) The scale of the FTA economy is highly relevant to the impact on Hong Kong. In the end, this study puts forward the FTA construction strategy of ' multi-echelon echelon ' integration into the Mainland under the background of 'The Belt and Road',and as well as taking a ride from nation to promote the FTA construction, and focus on seeking large-scale multilateral FTA policy recommendations.