摘要
本文对东江博罗站近45年来天然径流量的变化和影响因素进行分析,结果表明:东江博罗站天然年径流量年际变化具有阶段性特征,东江博罗站年径流量变化存在着7年、22年的弱周期;太阳黑子数急剧增加时,东江博罗站径流量会相对的减少;在厄尔尼诺出现年时,东江博罗站径流量相对减少,而在厄尔尼诺次年,东江博罗站年径流量明显的增加,同时出现洪涝灾害的可能性也增大。
The analysis about the change of natural runoff and the possible factors in the Dongjiang River over the past 45 years. It was showed that annual variability of natural runoff had phase characteristic in the river, The annual flow would be to analyed the period was per 7 and 22 years. Meanwhile,sunspots affected the natural runoff in Dongjiang River ,the annual flow would be reduced when Sunspots changing rapidly; Natural runoff reduce when El Nino appears, and after a year when El Nino appears natural runoff rises large,it may cause flood.
