基于选择实验法的大豆种质农户选择偏好研究

Farmers' Planting Preferences for Soybean Germplasm based on Choice Experiment

农业部于2016年提出"调减玉米,增加大豆"的农业供给侧结构改革,在国产大豆产量和效益低,农民种植意愿不强的背景下,本研究立足于农户种植意愿,利用山东省381户农民对不同大豆种质属性选择的数据,运用选择实验法与多元Logit模型研究农户对大豆种质属性选择偏好并测算各属性经济价值。以低产、早熟、倒伏和低抗病虫的大豆为参照组,研究结果显示:(1)农户对大豆种质属性的选择偏好:抗倒伏>倒伏,高产>中产≥低产,中熟>早熟>晚熟,中抗病虫>高抗病虫>低抗病虫;(2)虽然农户种植大豆的用途有所差异,但是对大豆种质属性选择偏好基本一致;(3)大豆各品种市价低于其种质各属性加总价值,种质经济价值被市场低估。以上结果为提高农户种植大豆的积极性,制定合理的大豆种子市场价格体系,引导大豆育种产业的研究和发展,有效推进大豆产业供给侧改革提供了一定的科学依据。

In 2016,the Ministry of Agriculture proposed the supply-side structure reform program in agricultural sector named‘replacing corn with soybeans’,however,due to farmers were reluctant to plant soybeans,the yield and benefit of domesticsoybean planting were low. Based on survey data from 381 farmers’ selection of different soybean germplasm attributes inShandong province,this study examines farmers’ planting preference for different soybean attributes by adopting the choice ex-periment and multiple logit model,and then calculates the economic value for each attribute respectively. By taking soybeanswith low yields,early maturity,lodging and low resistance to disease as the reference group,our results showed that:(1) Farmers’ planting preferences(with respect to soybean germplasm attributes selection) as following,lodging resistance >lodging,high production > middle production≥low production,medium maturity > early maturing > late maturing,middle re-sistance > high resistance≥low resistance to pests.(2) Though the purposes for soybeans planting were different,farmers’ planting preferences were consistent for different soybean uses.(3) The market prices of soybeans were lower than the totalvalue of attributes for the targeted soybean varieties,and so the economic value of the soybean germplasm was underestimatedby the market. The above evidences provide certain scientific supports for improving farmers’ willingness to plant soybeans,design appropriate market price system of soybeans,guide research and development in soybean breeding industry and effec-tively promote the supply-side structure reform in soybean industry.