对外贸易促进中国经济增长的非线性机制研究——基于全球价值链视角的PSTR模型

Study on the Nonlinear Mechanism of Foreign Trade Promoting China’s Economic Growth——Based on PSTR Model from the Perspective of Global Value Chain

本文以全球价值链理论(GVC)为基础,以全球投入产出数据库(WIOD)为依托,基于面板平滑转化回归模型(PSTR),研究了对外贸易在不同机制下对中国经济增长的非线性平滑转化作用。从全球价值链参与度角度研究发现:进入21世纪后,随着对外开放程度的提高,对外贸易对中国经济增长的拉动作用呈现先大幅上升、后有所减缓的双机制非线性趋势,经济增长进入结构调整和对外开放的新时期;从全球价值链位置角度研究发现:加入WTO后,随着国际竞争力的提升,对外贸易对中国经济增长的拉动作用呈现先小幅下降、后大幅上升、近年来有所减缓的三机制平滑转换趋势,经济增长模式从数量型向质量型和效益型不断转变;产业异质性的研究表明:近年来,对外贸易对中国经济增长的拉动作用,在教育、公共管理和医疗等产业处于上升期,在信息、通信、服务、科技和制造业等产业有减缓趋势,在农业、金融和保险、批发和零售等产业呈现不断下降趋势,对外开放质量和国际竞争力有待进一步提升。

Based on the global value chain theory(GVC)and the global input-output database(WIOD),the nonlinear smoothing transitions of foreign trade on China’s economic growth are analyzed through the panel smoothing transition regression model(PSTR)under different mechanisms.Research findings from the perspective of global value chain participation are as follows:After entering the 21st century,with the further improvement of China’s opening up,the driving role of foreign trade in China’s economic growth showed a nonlinear relationship of dual mechanisms which first rose sharply and then slowed down,indicating that economic growth of China has entered a new period of structural adjustment and opening up.Research findings from the perspective of global value chain location are as follows:After joining WTO,with the continuous improvement of China’s international competitiveness,the role of foreign trade in driving China’s economic growth presented a smooth transition between three mechanisms which first decreased slightly,then rose sharply,and then slowed down in recent years,indicating that the economic growth model of China was constantly changing from quantitative to quality and efficiency.Studies on industrial heterogeneity show that in recent years,the role of foreign trade in driving economic growth has been on the rise in education,public management and medical care industries,which has a slight trend of slowing down in such industries as information,communications,service,science,technology and manufacturing;besides,for agriculture,finance and insurance,wholesale and retail,the role of foreign trade shows a declining trend,which means that the quality of opening to the outside world and international competitiveness of these industries need to be further improved.