中美贸易变局下关键矿产资源供给安全分析

Supply Security Analysis of China’s Critical Minerals under the Sino-US Trade Change

自美国总统特朗普执政以来,中美经贸关系的不确定性显著增强,直接影响中美两国关键矿产资源供给安全。论文基于矿产资源供给风险传导机理形成的理论解释与中美两国贸易关系演变的历史事实,探讨中美贸易变局下关键矿产资源供给安全问题。结果表明:(1)随着中美贸易与中美经济实力地位的演变,两国经济的协动性以及关键矿产资源整合力度在不断加深,关键矿产资源在这种竞争格局演变中所扮演的角色对两国经济的影响越来越突出。从关键矿产钴资源的供给安全形势看,唯有两国开展资源合作,共同推进全球资源安全与平衡,才有可能实现各自的安全目标。(2)美国在关键矿产资源领域具有明显的市场竞争优势,但在未来制度安排方面,中国潜能更为突出,可以集中力量办大事。为化解中美贸易变局带来的风险,中国关键矿产资源供给安全政策安排可以考虑从以下两方面综合施策:一是科学厘定关键矿产资源种类,评估其安全性,并进行动态监测与预警;二是经略全球资源,以资源、产业和市场为纽带,适应生态文明建设要求,实现资源战略转变,谋划中国百年发展空间。

The uncertainty in Sino-US trade has significantly increased since Trump took office,which directly affects the supply security of critical minerals in China and the United States.Based on the theoretical explanation of transmition mechanism of mineral supply risk and the evolution of trade relations between China and US,we analysed supply circumstances of critical minerals in China under the Sino-US trade.Results show that:1)China’s economic growth has changed the state of Sino-US trade,deepening the economic cooperation between the two countries and the integration of critical minerals.The role of critical minerals in the evolution of this competitive landscape has increasingly prominent impact on the economies of the two countries.In terms of the situation of the supply of cobalt resources,only through resource cooperation and jointly promoting global resource security and balance can we achieve their respective security goals.2)US has obvious market competitive advantages in critical minerals,while institutional arrangements of critical minerals in China have more potential,and can pool resources to address major problems.In order to resolve the risks brought by Sino-US trade changes,supply security policy arrangements of critical minerals in China should be comprehensively implemented from the following two aspects:Firstly,scientifically determine the types of critical minerals,assess their safety,and conduct dynamics,and monitor early warning;Secondly,coordinate global resources,take resources,industries and markets as the link,adapt to the requirements of ecological civilization construction so as to realize the strategic transformation and plan for China’s centennial development.