人类经济活动影响碳排放的国际研究动态

The International Latest Research of the Impacts of Human Activities on Carbon Emissions

人类经济活动对碳排放的影响是国际全球变化研究的热点之一。根据国际上 2 0世纪 90年代以来大量研究计划与成果的分析 ,总结了当前国际上有关人类经济活动与碳排放研究的主要内容和研究方法。研究的主要内容集中在 :( 1 )能源消费与碳排放 ,包括与碳减排有关的能源消费结构的转换和低碳排放能源系统的建立 ;( 2 )经济发展与碳排放 ,主要探讨不同经济发展模式与碳排放的关系 ;( 3)农业生产与碳排放 ,包括土地利用变化、农业土地整治、农业生产水平与结构的变化等 ;( 4 )碳减排的经济风险分析与减排对策研究。在研究方法上 ,除了简单的相关分析、区域对比分析之外 ,基于大量数据的综合模型分析越来越受到重视。在基本反映国际上人类经济活动与碳排放研究的最新态势的同时 ,提出了我国碳循环研究中值得重视的几个问题。

Global warming has been becoming a world wide issue in which anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 2, N 2O) plays a main role. According to the analysis of international study on it since 1990's, this paper summarized the main contents and the methods of international research on the impacts of human activities on carbon emission. The main contents are: ① energy consumption and carbon emission, including the transform of the structure of energy consumption and the construction of low emission supply system (LESS) ; ② economic development and carbon emission, which focus on the relationship between the different economic development style and carbon emission, including economic development stage, economic structure, and economic development speed; ③ agriculture and carbon cycle, including the relationship between land use/land cover change and carbon cycle, impacts of management of agricultural land and restoration of degraded land on carbon cycle, and the influence of agricultural development level and structure's change on carbon emission; ④ the economic cost of CO 2 emission limits and the strategies for optimal CO 2 emission abatement. Because carbon emission process caused by human activities is very complicated, more and more synthetical models, based on a vast amount of data, such as carbon emission/energy model, economic model of energy consumption and carbon emission limitation, DIAM model, etc., are used for analysis besides the traditional regression analysis and regional contrast analysis. Meanwhile, several issues on carbon cycle research that must be emphasized in China were analyzed.