美国金融负债产生的非生产性GDP——经济虚拟化和危机的宏观经济学

Liabilities-Driven Non-productive GDP in the US: The Macroeconomics of Virtualization and Crisis

次贷危机和此后美国的经济衰退不是源自主流经济理论能够解释的消费或投资需求不足,衰退的原因是金融崩盘导致资产性收益和消费信贷下降削弱了居民消费能力。居民资产收益和信贷资金来源是不断扩增金融负债创造的货币,不是源自对GDP的分配,却在用于消费后反而形成GDP(增加值)成为GDP的来源。可以称此GDP为非生产性GDP或广义GDP,它是美国目前经济增长的来源。金融资产交易产生的资产性收益造成了现行核算体系中美国资本账户和金融账户间持续扩大的数据不一致,这可供我们观察非生产性GDP数额之用。虽然二手房交易造成的资产性收益仍无法统计,但我们的数据分析显示:美国经济主要靠非生产性GDP拉动,在次贷危机结束后,实体经济没有好转,仍然是以这些非生产性GDP来维持经济的景气。

The subprime mortgage crisis and subsequent economic recession in the US were not caused by weakened demand for consumption and investment as mainstream economic theories suggested.The financial meltdown triggered diminishing return on assets and consumer credit bust,which in turn significantly cut back household spending power.In the US,the source of return of assets and credit funds is money supply made available by ever-expanding financial liabilities,not the distribution of GDP.When these funds are used for consumption,they become an additional source of GDP.Such non-productive or'general'GDP is currently the main driver of economic growth in the US.Return on assets generated by financial asset transactions contributes to the increasing discrepancy between capital account and financial account under America’s current system of accounts,which serves as an indicator of non-productive GDP.Though it is impossible to tally return on assets from all resale home transactions,our statistical analysis shows that America’s growth is largely buttressed by non-productive GDP,while the real economy has languished since the subprime mortgage crisis.