基于二阶预测有效度IOWGA算子的变形组合预测研究

The Research Combination Forecasting Model of Deformation Data Based on Second-Order Forecast Effective Measure with IOWGA Operator

针对一阶预测有效度未能考虑预测精度的方差以及权数不变的问题,提出一种基于二阶预测有效度IOWGA算子的变权组合预测方法。该方法以二阶预测有效度作为目标函数,根据预测精度赋权,然后将其运用于变形数据分析中。实验结果表明,该模型预测精度高,适用于变形预测与分析。

The first-order forecast effective measure cannot consider the standard deviation of the accuracy and the weight is always unchanged.In this paper,a new combination forecasting model is proposed based on the second-order forecast effective measure and the induced ordered weighted geometric averaging operator(IOWGA).This model predicts the second-order forecast effective measure as an objective function and determines the weight based on the value's accuracy.We use an example to illustrate this method.Experimental results show that the proposed model has high forecasting precision,which could be widely used in deformation forecasting or analysis.