考虑资源相关性和不确定性的负荷需求响应决策研究

Research on Load Demand Response Decision Considering Resource Correlation and Uncertainty

需求响应(demand response,DR)具有一定的不确定性,为了真实地反映各不确定性用户的响应情况,文章考虑了以空调为代表的不确定性用户资源之间在空间和时间上响应度的相关性。首先采用拉丁超立方采样法对响应度进行规模采样和相关性控制,得到反映响应相关性的样本。其次引入确定性资源,建立负荷聚合商(load aggregator,LA)的最优决策模型,并通过随机模拟和智能算法求解利润最高时的决策方案。最后通过算例分析了确定性资源、相关性及响应度的分布参数对决策方案和利润的影响,验证了订购确定性资源,签约负相关的不确定性用户,提高响应度的均值,降低响应度的方差均对利润有着显著的提高。

The demand response(DR)has certain uncertainty.In order to truly reflect the response of each uncertain user,this paper considers the correlation between spatial and temporal responsiveness of uncertain user resources represented by air conditioning.Firstly,the improved Latin hypercube sampling method is used to scale and correlate the responsivity,and the samples reflecting the response correlation are obtained.Secondly,the deterministic resources are introduced to establish the optimal decision model of the load aggregator(LA),and the decision-making scheme is solved by the algorithm when the profit is the highest through random simulation and intelligence.Finally,an example is given to analyze the influence of the distribution parameters of deterministic resources,correlation and responsiveness on decision-making schemes and profits.Measures that can increase the profit include ordering deterministic resources,signing negative related uncertain users,increasing the average of responsiveness,reducing the variance of responsiveness.