北京市养老设施空间可达性评价

Measuring spatial accessibility to residential care facilities in Beijing

发展养老服务是当前中国社会建设中的重要部分。近年来,北京市养老设施发展迅速,但是由于快速的人口老龄化,北京市养老设施的供给仍难以满足老年人口对养老设施的需求。对北京市养老设施空间可达性进行科学评价是进行合理空间配置的基础,具有重要的现实意义。本文基于GIS技术,应用改进的两步移动搜索法,对北京市养老设施的空间可达性进行了测算,并重点对1小时单一有效服务半径和按养老设施规模划分的三级有效服务半径这两种情形进行了比较分析。结果表明,后者对北京市养老设施的空间可达性评价更具合理性。本文对空间可达性的测算结果识别出了北京市各区域养老设施的稀缺程度,为养老设施的空间布局提出了政策性建议。

In recent years,residential care resources in Beijing have increased rapidly.The supply of residential care resources,however,is still in shortage due to the increase of demand.To reach the '9064' policy goal proposed by the Beijing municipal government,which means that 4 percent of elderly population in Beijing will live in residential care facilities in 2020,about 90 thousand beds of residential care facilities are still needed.An efficient method for measuring accessibility is of crucial importance for the spatial planning of residential care resources.Among a range of methods to measure the spatial accessibility of facilities,the two- step floating catchment area method(2SFCA) is most widely used.But the 2SFCA does not take distance decay among catchment areas into account,and catchment size is constant for facilities with different sizes,which may reduce the accuracy of the assessment.This study uses an improved two-step floating catchment area method,including the addition of a distance-decay function and variable catchment sizes depending on the size of residential care facility,to assess the spatial accessibility to residential care resources in Beijing.Two scenarios are set for comparison.The first scenario was analyzed using one hour catchment area and the second scenario was analyzed using three different catchment areas based on the sizes of residential care facilities.In both scenarios the distance-decay function was taken into account.The results show that the measurement of three catchment areas is a more effective method than the one catchment area for measuring the spatial accessibility to residential care facilities in Beijing.A map of spatial accessibility was developed to show the distribution of shortage areas of residential care resources in Beijing.This map indicates that the geographic distribution of spatial accessibility to residential care facilities in Beijing is fairly uneven.The spatial accessibility is higher in the western part,the northern part and the northeastern part as compared to the southern part of the city.The spatial accessibility in the central part is still poor in spite of a considerable number of residential care facilities located in the central city.This is due to the great size of elderly population in the central area of Beijing.Because land for constructing new residential care facilities is in great shortage in the core area of the city,such facilities should be located outside of the area or in the suburbs to provide services for elderly population in the central city.The spatial accessibility in the southern part is generally poor and very uneven,so new residential care facilities should be located across the area and more focus should be given to areas with relatively poorer spatial accessibility.These recommendations are consistent with the 'Special Planning of Residential Care Facility for the Elderly in Beijing' by the Beijing municipal government.