长江经济带新型城镇化协调性的趋同与差异研究

Convergence and divergence of the coordinated development of the new urbanization process in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

近10年来,城镇化进程中暴露的很多问题可以归结为城镇化的协调性问题,本文以"人地关系"理论为基础,从城乡、产城、城镇化区域和城镇化与资源环境协调发展4个方面来衡量新型城镇化的协调性。并以长江经济带为研究区域,运用空间杜宾面板模型(spatial Durbin panel data model,SDPDM)从经验上考察新型城镇化协调性的俱乐部与条件趋同现象,发现制约长江经济带东、中、西部新型城镇化协调性的因素并不一致:东部城市应进一步加强城镇化同资源环境的协调,促进区域间的协同发展;中部城市应改变大拆大建的城市建设模式,着重发展服务业和增强城市间的合作;西部城市应进一步推进市场开放进程,减少政府对市场的干预和城市建设中的攀比,发展服务业和促进本地经济增长。同时,限制城市人口增长的政策对于新型城镇化协调性不存在显著影响,而放开户籍管制,则会促进人口向城市集聚;无论从促进第三产业发展、产城融合或是城乡协调发展,均会对新型城镇化协调性起到正向作用。

Over the past decade, many problems that surfaced in the process of urbanization can be attributed to uncoordinated development. Based on a human-environment relationship perspective, this article analyzes coordinated development of the new urbanization process using indicators concerning the coordination of urban and rural, urban and industrial, intra-regional, and resources/environment and urban developments. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB) as a case, this study examines the convergence and conditional convergence of the coordination using the spatial Durbin panel data model empirically. The result shows that factors affecting the coordinated development of the new urbanization process vary between the eastern, central, and western areas of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. To facilitate the coordinated development of the new urbanization process, the eastern areas should promote the coordination between urbanization and resources/environment, and promote the coordinated development among regions; the central areas should change the demolition- construction urban development model and focus on the development of services and increase cooperation between cities; the western areas should continue the market opening-up process, reduce government intervention in the market and competition with regard to urban development, and develop services and promote local economic growth. Policies limiting urban population growth has had no significant effect on the coordinated development of the new urbanization process, but relaxing the household registration restrictions will increase migration to urban areas, which will have positive effects on the coordinated development of the new urbanization process with regard to the development of tertiary industry, integration of industrial and urban development, and coordination of urban and rural development.