2010—2015年中东北非政局变动中的“政治性民意势力”及其影响

“Political public opinion forces”in political changes of the Middle East and North Africa and their geopolitical influences

援引批判地缘政治学话语权和地缘政治想象分析方法,在对'民意''政治性民意''政治性民意势力'内涵界定的基础上,分析了2010—2015年中东北非地区相关国家政局变动中'政治性民意势力'的形成背景、过程及其影响。结果表明:中东北非国家'政治性民意势力'的形成有着深厚的国内背景和复杂的国际背景;'政治性民意势力'的形成经历了从民意事件客体的呈现,到民众聚集并上升为政治性议题,再到国内外势力借力博弈形成挑动抗议、推动政变的政治力量的过程;'政治性民意势力'形成以后,多行为体借力博弈下,在国别、区域上呈现不同的扩散轨迹和规律;'政治性民意势力'一方面造成了中东北非相关国家的政局变换,另一方面则推动区域地缘政治格局的变迁。这是对民意事件的地缘政治理论解读和分析,是一次较为有意义的尝试。

Based on the definition of'public opinion,''political public opinion,'and'political public opinion forces'and taking discourse power and geopolitical imagination of critical geopolitics as methodology,this study mainly analyzed the formation and impacts of'political public opinion forces'in the political changes of countries in the Middle East and North Africa region from 2010 to 2015.The research results show that the'political public opinion forces'formed against a profound domestic background in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa as well as the international context.Their formation experienced the following process:beginning with the appearance of public opinion events,then moving on to the gathering of people and the rise to political issues,and ending with the domestic and foreign forces finding agents and forming the political powers to incite,protest,and push forward the political changes.After the formation of'political public opinion forces'and under the tactics of various actors,the'political public opinion incidents'expanded at home and aboard while it spread spatially from south and north in herringbone trajectory.As the pivotal actor among the various actors,'political public opinion forces'on the one hand caused the successive political changes of related countries in the Middle East and North Africa.It on the other hand further promoted the differentiating and restructuring of regional geopolitical relations.This is a meaningful attempt to interpret and analyze public opinion events with geopolitical theory.