中国经济空间格局演化与区域产业变迁——基于1952～2010年省区经济份额变动的实证分析

Evolution of China's Spatial Economy and Regional Industrial Shift:Empirical Analysis of Changes in Economic Shares of Chinese Provinces from 1952 to 2010

从区域经济份额变化出发,分析了1952~2010年中国经济空间格局的演化过程。通过有序样本聚类的方法,将省区经济份额变动划分了8个阶段,并采用偏离-份额法分析了不同阶段驱动省区经济份额上升的产业及其变迁,以及与区域产业结构和竞争优势变化的关系。研究发现,1949年以来中国区域经济布局总体上经历了沿海-内地均衡发展、沿海化非均衡发展以及东、中、西部相对均衡发展的过程,且整体上区域经济份额变动趋于减小。1979年以前,不同区域的经济份额在不同阶段变化差异较大,主要由第一和第二产业驱动。1979年以后,区域经济格局呈现明显的沿海化趋势,但驱动产业在不同阶段有所变化。2001年以来,中国区域经济格局经历了重大调整,经济份额上升的省区明显由东部向中、西部地区转移。东部省区在第二产业上仍具有明显的结构优势,但第二产业竞争优势已由东部向中、西部地区转移。东部的北京、上海、广东在第三产业上呈现更加显著的结构优势,显示出结构升级和服务化的发展态势。

Through analyzing the changes in economic shares of provinces in China from 1952 to 2010, we studied the evolution of China's spatial economy and regional industrial shift since the founding of the People's Republic of China. Previous studies mostly focused on the development of China's spatial economy in the post-reform era, while our study used a long time series data set and tried to give the whole picture of the evolution of China's spatial economy in almost 60 years. We divided the evolution of China's spatial economic pattern into eight phases by using the sequential sample cluster analysis, and then we applied the shift-share analysis to decompose the changes in economic shares of Chinese provinces and analyzed the industry that drove the increase of economic shares of provinces and its shift in different phases, as well as the relationship between the industrial shift and the changes in regional industrial mix and competitive advantages. Our findings showed that since the founding of the People's Republic of China, China's regional economy has experienced the balanced development of the coastal and interior regions, the unbalanced development with priority in the coastal areas, and the relatively balanced development among the eastern, central and western regions in general, at the same time, the average changes in economic shares of provinces tend to decrease over the phases. Before the economic reforms and the opening-up of China, economic shares of different regions in different phases changed dramatically and in different ways, which was mainly driven by the primary and secondary industries. After the economic reforms and the opening-up of China, the regional economy had shifted to the coastal areas evidently with the great increase of economic shares of the eastern and coastal provinces, while the industries that drove the increase of economic shares of coastal regions changed in different phases. Since 2000, China's regional economy has changed a lot, with the shift of regions with the increase of economic shares from the coastal provinces to the central and western provinces. Although the coastal areas still have the relatively high share of secondary industry in their industrial mix, the competitive advantages of secondary industry have shifted from the eastern areas to the central and western areas, which are indicated by the relatively higher growth rate of the secondary industry in the central and western provinces since 2000. Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong in the east have shown more advantages in the tertiary industry with more share of tertiary industry in their industrial mix,which shows the tendency of upgrading and servicisation of regional economy in these areas.