基于水资源承载能力的达茂旗牧区用水方案优化

The Optimal Water Utilization of Damaoqi in Pastoral Area Based on Water Resources Carrying Capacity

根据干旱草原区水资源承载系统具有数据多元性和动态性的特点,建立基于GIS的水资源承载能力模型,分别从时间和空间尺度上评价现状水资源承载能力及其影响因素,评价结果表明2008~2012年达茂旗全旗的水资源承载能力为一般水平,水资源承载能力较强水平的区域占全旗总面积的37.23%;降水的减少直接导致了生产、生态用水的下降。灵敏度分析结果表明水资源自身承载能力受水资源可利用比例影响最大,社会系统主要受人口密度、城镇化率影响,经济系统中,农业GDP比重影响很大。基于现状评价结果预设3种牧区用水方案优化模式,水资源承载能力预测结果表明水资源开发利用率控制效果并非越严格越好,节水型社会稳步建设方案是规划水平年牧区用水方案的适宜模式。

According to the feature of diversity and dynamic of water resources system in arid grassland area,the water resources carrying capacity model is established with Geographic Information System technology,the carrying capacity and its influence factors are evaluated in different spatial and temporal scales. The research results show that the water carrying capacity of Damaoqi is at general level from 2008 to 2012, and the area ratio of the stronger carrying capacity level of water resources is 37.23%. From the calculation results, it can be found that the lower rainfall makes the decrease of industry producing water consuming and ecological water consuming. The sensitivity analyzing results reveal that the available water resources ratio is the main factor to change water resources carrying capacity in water resources system itself, population density index and urbanization index are the two key factors to restrict the social carrying capacity system, and GDP of agriculture is the vital factor to control the economic carrying capacity system. Based on the present evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity, three different development patterns are designed for optimizing the water utillization of Damaqo in pastoral area. The calculation results indicate that the development pattern of the most strict water resource management is so stricter that the water resources carrying capacity would not been improved effectively, and the development pattern of steady construction of water saving society is the best way to promote the sustainable development of economic, society and ecology in Damaoqi in the planning year.