中国对非洲直接投资的空间分布及其影响因素研究

The Spatial Distribution and Its Determinants of Chinese Outward Direct Investment to Africa

基于2007~2011年中国对非洲直接投资数据和非洲43国的经济、人口、能源等数据,分析了中国对非洲直接投资的地理空间分布。在此基础上,运用因子分析方法提取5项影响因素的主因子,并以中国对非洲各国的人均直接投资额为因变量,各主因子为自变量进行回归分析,揭示了影响中国对非洲直接投资国别选择和空间分布的主要因素。实证结果表明,中国对非洲直接投资的空间分布与东道国的硬环境、城镇化、市场化有直接关系,与能源、市场规模的关系并不显著,这有效抨击了海外对于中国对非洲投资旨在资源掠夺的观点。此外,空间效应分析结果显示,中国对非洲各国的直接投资存在空间弱相关性,对周边国的溢出效应不明显。在实证研究基础上,就进一步促进中国对非洲直接投资的发展提出了若干政策建议。

Using a database of Chinese outward foreign direct investment(OFDI) to Africa from 2007 to 2011,and economic, population and energy data of 43 African countries, this article analyses the spatial distribution of Chinese OFDI to African countries and its determinants. By adopting a factor analysis, five main factors are obtained from sixteen indexes. A linear regression model is used to examine the influence of these five main factors towards the Chinese OFDI to African countries. In the model, Chinese OFDI per capital is taken as an independent variable, and the five main factors as dependent variables. The results showed that the infrastructure, urbanization and marktization of the host countries are significantly correlated with the spatial distribution of Chinese OFDI to African countries, while energy and size of market are insignificant enough. The result strongly opposes the argument that the purpose of Chinese OFDI to African countries are mainly for resource access. Furthermore, the results of the analysis also shows that Chinese OFDI to African countries are weakly correlated in space whilst of no insignificant spillover effect to its neighboring countries. The related background reasons are also provided in the article. Based on the above analysis, the article put forward suggestions for the policy makers in terms of the development of Chinese OFDI to Africa.