中国GDP偏离度的空间计量经济分析

A Spatial Econometric Analysis of China's GDP Deviation Degree

采用突变级数法、ESDA及空间计量经济模型对1985~2012年中国GDP的偏离度的时空差异进行了研究,结果发现:1除2009年外,自1998年来中国GDP偏离度一直在不断增加,国家政策及全球经济运行状况对其有重要影响;2 2012年和2009年相比,GDP偏离度空间格局变动不大,长三角、京津冀及中部地区一直是偏离度较大的区域;3空间相互作用是中国GDP偏离度拉大的重要原因;4 GDP总量、建筑业及固定资产投资总额对中国GDP偏离度具有重要影响;5能耗及GDP速度对GDP偏离度产生负向作用,主要是由其发展阶段决定的。

China′ s GDP deviation degree is studied by Catastrophe progression method, ESDA and spatial econometric model from 1985 to 2012. Five conclusions are arrived as follows: 1) Except for 2009, since 1998China′ s GDP deviation degree had been increasing, the national policy and the global economic situation has important influence on the China's GDP deviation degree; 2) Compared to 2009, the spatial pattern of GDP deviation degree has almost no change in 2012, the regions which have been greater deviation degree were the Changjiang River Delta, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and central regions; 3) Spatial interaction is the important reason of China's GDP deviation degree widening; 4) The total GDP, the construction industry and the total investment in fixed assets has a significant impact on China's GDP deviation; 5) Energy consumption and speed of GDP have negative effects on China's GDP deviation degree, mainly by the development stage decision.