环渤海“C型”经济区经济格局的空间演变研究

Spatial Evolution of Economic Pattern in“C-typed”Economic Region Along the Bohai Rim

利用空间自相关指数、经济平均增长指数和空间变差函数,分析1990年以来环渤海"C型"经济区经济格局的空间演变特征。结果表明:经济发展呈现显著空间自相关,高-高、低-低集聚度不断提高,京津唐都市圈、沈大经济带和山东半岛城市群成为经济发展的热点集中区,其他内陆县市和省际邻接地区是冷点集中区;经济增长空间集聚,高增长率转化快,热点区跃迁特征明显,1990~2000年呈不规则的团块状零散分布,2000~2010年呈带状集中分布于辽西北,省内经济差异不断缩小,而省际经济差异逐渐增大;经济发展的结构化分异显著,空间自组织性增强,大城市的辐射作用减弱,以东部沿海为中心,向周边多峰值递减,西南与西北内陆始终处于低谷。最后,从区域战略政策、经济产业基础、区位与交通条件探讨经济格局演化的驱动机制。

Taking the'C-typed'economic region along the Bohai Rim as a study case, GDP per capita as the measuring indicator, this article used the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA), semivariogram function, Kriging spatial interpolation and the software of Arc GIS10.0 and Geo DA to study the spatial evolution of economic pattern at the level of county in1990, 2000 and 2010. Then, driving factors of the spatial evolution of economic pattern were deeply discussed. Conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) At the overall spatial economic framework, the economic development of'C-typed'economic region along the Bohai Rim shows a strong trend of spatial autocorrelation, and the patterns of high-high and low-low agglomeration are inclined to get strengthened continuously. The hotspots of economic development are centralized in the regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan Area, Shenyang-Dalian economic belt and Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomerations, and the coldspots clusters in the inland and provincial boundary regions. The hotspot counties have been decreased remarkably, and coldspot counties are decreased first and increased afterward. 2) The economic growth also shows a strong trend of spatial autocorrelation, and the hotspot areas switch quickly, from scatter to concentration. The high values migrate to northwest of Liaoning Province, and low values center are on Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan Area, middle and south of Hebei Province in 2000-2010. The economic disparities of inside province are decreasing, and the inter-provincial economic disparities are gradually increasing. 3) According to the space-time mechanism, the spatial economic framework of'C-typed'economic region along the Bohai Rim tends to be more continuous and self-organized, and the random of the spatial differential pattern keeps decreasing, taking east coast as center. The homogeneousness of economic development in the east-west direction is typical for its relatively small spatial difference. As to the south-north, northeast-southwest and southeast-northwest direction, the spatial economic differences are great; and the radiation function of big cities obviously is weakening. Finally, 3 driving forces of economic framework evolvement in'C-typed'economic region along the Bohai Rim have been drawn: regional policies, economic and industrial foundation, location and traffic conditions. Generally speaking, the spatial evolution of economic pattern is complicate system engineering, and promoting the regional integration is also very long at the same time, therefore, some efforts should be made in the choices of index, methods and scale in the future.