中国地方政府财政赤字率的时空演变——地理监视的应用

The Spatio-temporal Evolution in Fiscal Deficit Ratio of Local Government in China:The Application of Geo-surveillance

运用重心模型、时空跃迁和地理监视揭示了中国地市财政赤字率的时空演变规律与空间相互作用。(1)赤字率重心西移,地域不均衡。(2)赤字率分布具有路径依赖和空间溢出效应。(3)经济越落后赤字风险越高,赤字冷点区集中于沿海且消退;热点区东扩且风险上升。(4)赤字累积风险顺地势阶梯递减。(5)广大中东部地市为非预警区,继续积极财政政策,但支出需偏向社会福利,依靠内需拉动经济增长;预警区多为中西部工业城市,应增强内生动力以实现财政与经济长期协调发展;调控区集中于青藏高原及边缘,中央应加大扶持民生,减轻地方压力。

Scholars have more emphasized on the spatial interaction of fiscal expenditure or deficit. Regrettably,firstly, they have far more attention to the time rule of fiscal deficit than to the regional pattern. Then, it is an academic consensus that finance in China is sustainable and fiscal deficit is controllable, but there is no inquiry on the deficit risk of concrete regions. Thirdly, although a part of researchers have focused on the spatial interaction, especially for the spatial spillover effect of fiscal deficit on imitations or comparisons among local governments, giving rise to spatial cluster of fiscal deficit at varied levels, less importance has attached on the validation of cluster leading to deviations in conclusions. Adopting Barycenter Model, Time-space Transition and Geo-surveillance, this article researched the time-space evolution and spatial interaction of fiscal deficit ratio at prefectural level. It was found that: 1) The barycenter of deficit ratio is distant from that of economic development, the deficit ratio of prefectures in Mid-Western China is much higher than that in Eastern China. 2) The spatial pattern of deficit ratio characterized by path dependence and spatial overspill, the inter-governmental competitions make it hard to break the situation where fiscal deficit is popular in the whole China. 3) The more backward area bears higher deficit risk. The cold point of deficit ratio is centered in the coastal area but its scale has been decreasing as time goes, the hot point of that has been sprawling from the western to the eastern quickly and the risk level has been heightening. 4) The cumulative risk decreases as the terrain lowers. The vast majority of prefectures in Eastern-Middle China is staying in the no-warning risk area, the positive fiscal strategy has more space to put its effects on economy. The most of prefectures grouped into the risk-warning area are traditionally industrial cities in Mid-Western China. The risk-adjusted area is concentrated in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its edge zone. Measures to control fiscal risk are made, such as it is proper to apply deficit strategies for every regions;in no-warning area, the social welfare should be prioritized by fiscal expenditure, and private investment and domestic demand should play more important role in stimulating economic growth and increasing fiscal revenue;in the risk-warning area, strengthening the endogenous power of economic growth is more efficient to realize the long-term harmony between finance and economy;the Central Government should do favor to people’s livelihood projects in the risk-adjusted area to release the fiscal pressure of local governments.