国际工序贸易的空间经济分布效应研究——克鲁格曼开放度假说的再考察

International Task Trade’s Spatial Economic Effects: Reexamination on Krugman’s Openness Hypothesis

基于开放经济新中心是否与封闭经济原有中心空间重合的视角,以中国为背景对国际工序贸易影响空间经济分布的三大渠道进行理论阐释,在全球价值链背景下重新考察克鲁格曼的开放度假说。在理论分析基础上,借助加工贸易集聚熵指数和空间赫希曼-赫芬达尔指数(及校正地理集中指数)分别度量各省国际工序贸易嵌入程度和空间经济集聚水平,以中国23个省2001~2016年的面板数据构建动态面板模型,利用差分和系统广义矩估计对提出的理论假说进行实证分析和稳健性检验。结果表明:与开放度假说相反,国际工序贸易促进省域空间经济集聚;且工序贸易对经济集聚的促进作用在沿海要大于内陆。

Since the 1980s,due to the great improvement of communication and transportation technologies,the reduction of international trade barriers and the fact that more and more countries are opening up from being isolated,economic globalization has ushered the third wave and the international division of labor has been greatly expanded and deepened.China’s reform and opening-up policy coincided with this timing,enabling it to evolve from a nearly isolated economy into the'factory of the world'in a relatively short period of time.Deeply embedding into the economic globalization has definitely reshaped China’s spatial economic patterns.According to the situation whether open economy center spatially overlaps isolated economy center and with the background of China’s economy,this article interprets three theoretical channels of international task trade’s effect on spatial economic distribution in order to reexamine Krugman’s openness hypothesis under the global value chain era.After theoretical analysis,we measure provincial embedding level of international task trade network and economic agglomeration degree by entropy index of processing trade and spatial Herfindahl-Hirschman Index(and Adjusted Geographical Concentration index)respectively;We use dynamic panel data model to carry out empirical analysis and robust test on proposed theoretical hypothesis using difference and system generalized moment method estimation with China’s provincial panel data.Empirical results show that embedding into international task trade network has promoted China’s provincial economic agglomeration,which is inconsistent with Krugman’s openness hypothesis;Moreover,international task trade’promotion effect on coastal economic agglomeration is bigger than that on inland.Finally,it theoretically explains the empirical conclusion considering economic geographical reality and makes conclusions with orientation of cluster upgrade based on current situation.This article is of great theoretical value and practical significance for us to think about the new benefits of international trade and the new causes of economic agglomeration.However,there are also some deficiencies in this article.Due to lack of long-term input-output data and micro trade data at provincial level,methods widely used in academic field to measure the regional participation level of international task trade cannot be used in this article.