基于实物期权理论的碳捕集系统最佳投资时机决策模型

A Decision Model for Carbon-capture Systems Best Investment Opportunity Based on Real Option Theory

为了改善发电厂碳捕集系统投资价值评估的适应性和可靠性,结合碳捕集系统风险投资的期权特征,基于实物期权理论提出了碳捕集系统最佳投资时机决策数学模型。在考虑了系统投资决策的不可逆性和可延迟性以及碳价和碳减排成本的不确定性的基础上,得出了投资时机临界值和开发发电厂碳捕集系统的最优投资策略。数值算例分析表明,该模型合理地评估了风险投资的机会成本,最大限度地挖掘了系统的潜在价值。与传统净现值评估方法进行对比,该方法克服了净现值法低估风险价值的缺陷,有效地指导了碳捕集系统风险投资时机的选择,而不是做出立即投资或者是选择不开发的简单决策。该模型为发电厂碳捕集系统的投资提供了量化分析的数学工具和科学的参考依据。

In order to improve the adaptability and reliability for evaluation of the investment value of power plant carbon capture systems,a decision-making mathematical model for carbon-capture system optimal investment timing is proposed based on the real option theory by referring to the real option characteristics of venture capital investment for carbon capture systems. By taking into account the irreversibility and delay ability of investment decisions,and the uncertainties of carbon price and carbon mitigation cost,the investment critical value and the optimal investment strategy for power plant carbon capture systems are obtained.The results of numerical example reveal that the model can make a rational assessment for the opportunity cost of venture capital investment,and the potential value of the project can be exploited as much as possible. Compared with the traditional net present value assessment method,the proposed model can overcome the defects of the net present value method,and effectively guide the timing of carbon capture system risk investment,rather than make the simple decision on immediate investment or nondevelopment.The model has provided a quantitatively analytic mathematical tool for the investment carbon capture system in a power plant that can be used as scientific reference for decision-makers.