关于短期及超短期风电功率预测的评述

A Review on Short-term and Ultra-short-term Wind Power Prediction

讨论风电功率预测及其误差对电力系统的影响,从信息流观点解读风电功率预测过程,归纳影响风电功率预测精度的因素,并对风电功率预测的研究现状加以归类与梳理。在此基础上,讨论对风电功率预测结果评价指标的要求,提出误差评估指标应该反映整个时间窗口内的预报质量,并展望风电功率预测可能的突破。

The impact of wind power prediction(WPP)on power systems is discussed and the factors affecting the accuracy of WPP are summarized.Then the paper unscrambles the WPP process from the viewpoint of information flow,classifies its research status and discusses the requirements of evaluation index for WPP results.It is proposed that the error evaluation index should reflect the WPP quality of the whole time window,and possible breakthroughs of WPP are also predicted.