基于稀疏多项式混沌展开的孤岛微电网全局灵敏度分析

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Islanded Microgrid Based on Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansion

随着可再生能源的渗透率和电动汽车的接入比例不断提高,微电网运行的不确定性因素显著增加,准确评估不确定性因素对微电网状态的影响,有利于提高系统的安全稳定运行水平。计及孤岛微电网中的源荷不确定性,构建了孤岛微电网的概率潮流模型,引入了全局灵敏度分析指标,提出了基于稀疏多项式混沌展开的孤岛微电网全局灵敏度分析方法,用于准确、快速地辨识影响系统运行状态的关键输入随机变量。通过对含分布式电源的40节点孤岛微电网系统进行仿真,验证了所提方法的准确性和高效性,分析了源荷不确定性对微电网潮流的影响,获得了输入随机变量的重要性排序结果。

As the penetration rate of renewable energy sources and the proportion of electric vehicles continue to increase,the uncertainties in the operation of microgrids have increased significantly.Accurate assessment of the influence of uncertainties on the status of microgrids will help improve the safe and stable operation of the system.Considering the uncertainties of source and loads,the probabilistic power flow model of islanded microgrids is established and the global sensitivity analysis indices are introduced.Then,the global sensitivity analysis of islanded microgrids based on sparse polynomial chaos expansion is proposed.The proposed method is used to accurately and quickly identify critical input random variables that affect the operation status of the system.Through the simulation of a 40-bus islanded microgrid with distributed generators,the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method are verified.The effect of the source and load uncertainty on the power flow of islanded microgrid is analyzed and the importance ranking of input random variables is given.