中国石油资源空间流动的驱动机制分析

The driving mechanism analysis of China's crude oil spatial displacement

采用重心分析方法、指示克里金内插方法和空间相关系数,探讨了中国石油资源空间流动的驱动机制,结果表明:①多数年份内,汇地系统重心演变受经济发展的影响更大;而2003年以后经济重心对源地系统重心的影响也在逐渐加强。②从源地系统空间相关分析来看,石油生产—进口量的区域差异,决定了源地系统与国内油田和国内油田—石油进口港(口岸)的空间相关程度;而石油流动要素的空间分布及演变,对空间相关系数的数值变化产生一定影响,这使得源地系统在1985和1995年主要由单一国内油田驱动机制所决定,在1999、2003和2009年则由国内油田—进口石油港(口岸)的双重驱动机制所决定。③对汇地系统来说,国内炼厂的资源需求是汇地系统空间格局演变的重要驱动力。

According to the overlap between the gravity center of the source system(or the sink system) of China's crude oil flow and the gravity center of China's overall economy, as well as the consistency of their displacement trends, this paper analyzes the spatial coupling degree between the gravity centers of the source system(or the sink system) and economy in five typical years from the research period 1985-2009. To reveal the driving mechanism of China's crude oil flow, Indicator Kriging Interpolating Method is applied to be fit for the trend surfaces of the source and sink system, as well as the distribution of main domestic oil fields, seaports of oil import(including land ports, same as below), and domestic refineries, and then, the spatial correlation coefficients are used to determine the spatial correlation between them. Some conclusions are as follows.(1) In the research period, the gap between the gravity centers of sink system and economy remained a certain range within 300-400 km, which reflects that economic growth has more influence on the sink system than on the source one. Meanwhile, the gap between the gravity centers of source system and economy has narrowed rapidly after the typical year of 2003, which showed that the influence of the economic growth on the source system had been growing gradually.(2) According to the spatial correlation analysis of the source system, the regional differences of crude oil production and import is the major determining factor of the spatial correlation between the source system and main domestic oilfields, as well as between the source system and main domestic oilfields-import seaports; and the distribution and displacement of crude oil flow elements, including oilfields, pipelines, oil refineries and others, also have some influence on the changes of the spatial correlation coefficients. Thus it can be seen that the displacement of the source system in typical years of 1985 and 1995 was mainly driven alone by the development of domestic oilfields, and it was also driven by both the development of domestic oilfields and import seaports in the typical years of 1999, 2003 and 2009.(3) There is a close relationship between the spatial distribution of the sink system and domestic refineries, as reflected by the spatial correlation coefficient. Therefore, domestic refineries' huge need of crude oil is the principal driving force of the displacement of sink system. Because of data limitation, this paper only analyzed the typical year of 2009, and it is necessary to be further improved.