中国区域发展战略实施效果动态评估

The dynamic evaluation of the implementation effect of Chinese regional development strategy

中国区域发展战略是包含经济、社会、文化、生态及政治"五位一体"的综合发展战略。从空间效率与空间公平相结合角度构建了包含经济、社会、文化、生态及政治五个层面的区域发展战略实施效果综合评估指标体系,进而分别采用存量和增量数据,对1949年以来各历史时期的区域发展战略实施效果进行了动态评价与综合比较。结果表明:一方面,虽然中国在不同时期依据不同的战略重点实施差异化的区域发展战略总体上成效显著,但在不同时期所产生空间效率与空间公平呈现迥异特征,平衡发展时期空间效率停滞而空间公平上升;非均衡发展时期空间效率上升,但空间公平下降;协调发展时期空间效率和空间公平均出现了上升态势。另一方面,经济、社会、文化和生态层面的空间发展存在差异,特别是生态层面的空间效率和空间公平恶化都较为严重。

The regional development strategy implemented by Chinese government has exerted important influences on China's current economic and social structure since the founding of new China. It has also been a hot topic in the academic circles to evaluate the implementation effect of Chinese regional development strategy. However, most of the existing research just focused on the economic influence of strategy implementation. But in fact, Chinese regional development strategy should be a comprehensive and 'five in one' development strategy including economy, society, culture, ecology and politics. The evaluation of Chinese regional development strategy should be a comprehensive evaluation which is consistent with the content of the strategy instead of only being limited to the aspect of economic development.Therefore, beginning with the angle of space efficiency combined with fairness, this paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system of regional development strategic effect that covers the above five aspects. And then, it adopted stock and incremental data respectively to make a dynamic evaluation and comprehensive comparison of regional development strategic effect in different historical periods through the analytic hierarchy process model. It turned out that, on one hand, according to different strategy priorities in different periods,Chinese different regional development strategies have achieved remarkable effect on the whole. However, space efficiency and fairness showed different features in different periods.Space fairness increased while space efficiency stagnated in the balanced development period,thus the composite effect rose slightly. Space efficiency rose but the fairness decreased in the unbalanced development period; as a result the composite effect rose not obviously as well. In the coordinated development period, space efficiency and fairness both have presented an upward trend, and the composite effect increased significantly. On the other hand, there exist spatial differences in economic, social, cultural, ecological and political development. The space efficiency and fairness in economy, society and culture has been improved greatly. In the political development, space efficiency has risen but the fairness decreased so that the total effect is stable. But both the space efficiency and fairness have degenerated seriously in ecological aspect.