1644-1911年中国华东与华南沿海台风入境频率

The changing of Chinese coastal typhoon frequency based on historical documents, 1644-1911AD

利用清代至民国时期华东与华南沿海的多种历史文献,通过对"颶"、"颱"含义的考察与风雨潮现象记录特征的辨析,以及非台风事件的排除,建立了1644-1911年入境华东与华南沿海的逐年台风频率序列。研究时段内共有967次台风入境(年均3.62次),17世纪后半期、19世纪与20世纪之交这两个时期是台风活动非常活跃的时期。ENSO现象与沿海台风活动的频率不存在明显的相关性。全球/半球尺度的冷暖转换在19世纪后期至20世纪早期曾经伴随了入境中国沿海台风次数的增加,在过去300年中是增长速率最快的一个时期,但在17世纪和18世纪之交时出现的快速升温现象却伴随着沿海台风数量的下降。因此,半球/全球尺度的快速升温现象与中国华东—华南沿海遭受台风数量之间可能不存在线性关系。

Based on a variety of historical literatures of Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China, the year- by- year frequency sequence of typhoons making landfall in coastal regions of East and South China from 1644 to 1911 is established through examining the meaning of 'Ju'(颶)and 'Tai'(颱), analyzing recorded characteristics of storm tide phenomenon, as well as the exclusion of non-typhoon events. In the study period(AD1644-1911), a total of 967 typhoons made landfall in China(average 3.62 times per year), and the typhoon activity was very active in the second half of the 17 th century and at the turn of the 19 th and 20 th centuries. There is no obvious correlation between ENSO phenomenon and the frequency of typhoon activity in coastal regions. Changes in temperature conversion in global/hemispheric scale increased in the late 19 th century to the early 20 th century with the number of typhoons making landfall in coastal regions of China, and over the last 300 years was the period of the greatest rate of growth, but rapid warming phenomenon at the turn of 17 th and 18 th centuries decreased with the number of typhoons making landfall in coastal regions, so the rapid warming phenomenon in global/hemispheric scale and the number of the typhoons occurred in coastal regions of East and South China are irrelevant. On the inter- decadal scale,typhoons that influence coastal regions of East and South China have the obvious inverse correlation. From the long period of time, the relationship between the frequency of typhoons making landfall in coastal regions of China and ENSO can indicate that the influence of ENSO on typhoons making landfall in China is likely to be periodic, currently, the consistence of them may have been established in the late 19 th century, by contrast, the consistence that appeared in the early 18 th century seemed to be more stable. Prevoius studies showed that the frequency of typhoons and ENSO had sustainable and stable relationship, which seemed that the relationship does not exist in the regional studies. Due to the limitation of the documents in this study, the relationship between ENSO and typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific needs to be further studied. 'Global warming' that have effects on the environment still has much uncertainty, thus whether disastrous weathers, including typhoon, will increase under the background of 'global warming', still needs further studies as well as reviews. The relationship between the factors like typhoon strength, its motion path and its remaining time and 'global warming' will be still unclear, so that it needs more research. The spatial variation of typhoon activity in coastal regions of East and South China that article reveals can not yet give a better explanation, and it should be provided for academic discussion.