基于绿色投入产出表的环境污染治理成本及影响模拟

Simulation of pollutant control cost and its economic impact based on China's green input-output table

在编制绿色投入产出表的基础上,对中国废水、大气污染物和固体废物的直接产生系数和完全产生系数进行分析,并对这三大类污染治理的单位成本和污染物治理的经济影响进行模拟。结果显示:1电力热力的生产和供应业、化学原料及化学制品制造业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、石油加工及炼焦业、石油和天然气开采业等行业废水、废气和固废的完全产污系数都较高,属污染减排的重点行业。2模拟的废水完全治理成本为6.4元/t,废气为2136元/t,固体废物为101元/t。3以模拟的单位治理成本进行污染物治理,将对电力热力的生产和供应业、有色金属矿采选业、黑色金属矿采选业、造纸及纸制品业、有色金属冶炼及压延加工业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、非金属矿物制造业等行业的产品价格影响大。

The direct pollution generation coefficient and complete generation coefficient of wastewater, air pollutants and solid waste were analyzed, based on the China's green input-output table. Furthermore, the pollutant control cost and its economic impact were simulated.Some results are shown as follows.(1) The complete generation coefficient of certain industries, such as production and supply of electric power and heat power, manufacture of raw chemical materials and chemical products, smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, processing of petroleum and coking, extraction of petroleum and natural gas, was higher than that of other industries, and the industries should be taken as main regulatory targets.(2) The simulated control cost of wastewater was 6.4 yuan/t, the control cost of air pollutants was 2136 yuan/t, and the control cost of solid waste was 101 yuan/t. In comparison, the actual cost of wastewater was 3 yuan/t, the actual control cost of air pollutants was 305 yuan/t, and the actual control cost of solid waste was 30 yuan/t in 2007. The simulated control cost was 2.1 times, 2.4 times and 2times the actual cost.(3) If simulated pollutant control costs were imposed, the prices of certain industries would be impacted heavily and the prices change of certain industries were higher than 10%, such as production and supply of electric power and heat power, mining and processing of non-ferrous metal ores, mining and processing of ferrous metal ores, manufacture of paper and paper products, smelting and pressing of non- ferrous metals, smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, manufacture of non-metallic mineral products.(4) It is not feasible that the cost of environmental pollution control entirely was undertaken by the enterprises from the simulation results. On one hand, government controls environmental pollution through collection of sewage charges or emissions trading. On the other hand, environmental pollution should be treated by intensive treatment to play investment benefit and scale economic effect. Thus, 'Those that make pollution should pay for its cost' could bring more benefits than 'Those who make pollution should control it'.